DFW Home Prices Aren’t Crashing; Only 4% Behind All-Time Peak

Local home prices grew 0.7% from May to June and 4.8% since January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index.

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices increased for the fifth consecutive month in June, approaching the all-time high set a year earlier, despite higher mortgage rates.

Local home prices grew 0.7% from May to June and 4.8% since January, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index, a much-watched measure of the national housing market and 20 major metro areas.

In March, Dallas-Fort Worth prices saw their first year-over-year decline on the Case-Shiller index since February 2012, of 1.2%. The index shows local prices are still down 4.1% from their pandemic peak in June 2022. San Francisco, Seattle, Las Vegas and Phoenix saw much larger declines in the same period.

Nationally, prices rose 0.9% from May to June, also rising for the fifth consecutive month, and were stagnant from June 2022.

“We recognize that the market’s gains could be truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic weakness, but the breadth and strength of this month’s report are consistent with an optimistic view of future results,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director of the S&P Dow Jones Indices.

It’s a return to what looks like traditional seasonality after more than two years of consecutive month-to-month price increases in the region that drove homes prices up 58% from March 2020 to June 2022, according to the Case-Shiller index. U.S. prices increased 43% during that period.

The median single-family home price was $415,000 in July, unchanged from June, according to North Texas Real Estate Information Systems and the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.

The Case-Shiller index is a three-month moving average that compares sales-price changes of specific properties over time. While it is a couple of months behind current market conditions, the index’s price estimate is considered more accurate than data from agents, which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.

Chicago, Cleveland and New York reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 metro areas included in the index in June. Half of the metro areas saw year-over-year declines.

“While home prices have shown a lot of strength so far in 2023, elevated mortgage rates are making it difficult for many potential buyers to purchase properties, which will likely keep a lid on additional gains for the rest of the year,” CoreLogic chief economist Selma Hepp said.

Source: Dallas Morning News